For many people, the specter of November 8, 2016, looms large over election day November 5, 2024. The 2016 election day was poised to see the Democrat Hillary Clinton become the first woman president. Famously, it didn’t happen. At 2:40 a.m. that Wednesday, major media began calling the race for Republican Donald Trump.
Four years later, it took until the Saturday after election day before two major news coalitions could report Democrat Joe Biden was the victor over Trump.
This year, it is hard to predict when a winner in the presidential race between Republican Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris might become apparent. As the New Republic magazine reported October 23, “A flood of GOP-aligned polls has been released for the precise purpose of influencing the polling averages, and thus the election forecasts, in Trump’s favor.” Looking at only well-known independent polling operations, several things seem clear at this point, just days before the election:
- In seven states polls are too close to predict the outcome: Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona. They have a combined total of 93 Electoral votes (EVs). In 2020, Democratic nominee Joe Biden won six of the seven (all but North Carolina). Current polling in these states suggest Harris will take 50 EV, Trump 43.
- Two states, Nebraska and Maine, split their Electoral votes based on who wins each Congressional district. Polling at the moment suggests that, of the nine Electoral votes they have combined, five will go to Trump and four to Harris.
- In the other 41 states, where results seem largely predictable (due to each state’s past voting records, current large polling margins, and known demographics), Harris has 222 EVs and Trump 214. Add in the likely splits from Nebraska and Maine, the numbers show Harris with a core 226, Trump with a core 219.
If swing state EVs are distributed based on who has the tiniest of margins, Harris appears poised to win 276 to Trump’s 262. It takes 270 to win.
If neither candidate has a clear path to 270 at 10 p.m. EDT, it is likely that Trump will have accumulated 258 EVs to Harris’ 196. Once the polls close in California, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho at 11 p.m. (8 p.m. PDT), Trump will pull in four Electoral votes from Idaho, and Harris will surge to the winning mark of 270 with the addition of the 74 Electoral votes of the three west coast states.
But no one should count on getting to bed at a decent hour November 5; there are just too many ifs, ands, and buts —numerous other scenarios that could play out, including the possibility that some states will not know their results until many hours or days after the polls close.
Plus, there are other races of interest to LGBTQ voters Tuesday night. Perhaps the most significant is lesbian U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin’s very tight race to win re-election to a third term. Republicans have pummeled her state with television ads claiming that Baldwin is an extreme radical trying to “force girls to share locker rooms with biological men.” Her opponent has been claiming Baldwin wants to “change Title IX to allow guys to play in girls’ sports and guys to go into girls’ locker rooms and bathrooms.” They have even derided her for “being in bed with Wall Street,” a thinly veiled reference to other attack ads noting that Baldwin’s wealthy girlfriend is an investment advisor in Manhattan.
A gay Republican is running a long-shot campaign for the open U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey, but is not expected to win.
Fifteen openly LGBTQ people are running for U.S. House seats this year: ten incumbents and five challengers. Polls suggest four of those five newcomers could win, and, Democrats need a net gain of four new seats in order to take the majority in the House. Things are a little trickier in the Senate. There, Democrats would need to hang onto to Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and pick up New Jersey and Michigan in order to keep the Senate majority.
Here’s a brief synopsis of what to watch for and when on Election Night (all times EDT):
7:00 – 8:00 p.m.
Presidential race: Trump will likely end the hour with 82 Electoral votes, Harris 16. If Harris takes either Georgia or North Carolina, a big upset is in the works. Keep an eye on Virginia’s 13 EVs. Polls indicate they are “likely” to go to Harris, but an upset there would seriously hamper Harris’ prospects for the rest of the evening.
U.S. House: Incumbent Becca Balint of Vermont (at-large) is poised to win easily.
8:00 – 9:00 p.m.
Presidential race: Michigan and Pennsylvania are the swing states to watch this hour. Harris needs both; if Trump wins either, he has a much stronger chance of getting to 270.
U.S. Senate: Openly gay hotelier Curtis Bashaw is running for the seat left open by Democratic Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey. (Menendez was convicted in July for accepting bribes in return for helping Egypt and Qatar.) In addition to running red in a very blue state, Bashaw has not run for or held elective office before and his Democratic opponent has served two terms in the U.S. House.
9:00 – 10:00 p.m.
Presidential race: Wisconsin is a must-win for Harris. Arizona has been close but leaning toward Trump. If Harris has won Pennsylvania and Michigan in the previous hour, Wisconsin would position her to reach the magic mark of 270 Electoral votes to win when the west coast states are reported.
U.S. Senate: Lesbian U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin is in a very close race to win a third term. Her opponent, a Republican businessman, has a brother whose political action committee has spent several million dollars in attack ads against Baldwin. One attack ad mentions that New York residents have donated $1.3 million to the Baldwin campaign; it did not mention that her opponent, Republican Eric Hovde, has a home and business in Orange County, California. And Hovde’s brother, Steven, contributed at least $2 million to oppose Baldwin.
U.S. House: State Rep. Julie Johnson is leading the polls to win the Texas 32nd Congressional district seat. The Dallas Morning News endorsed her, and she could become the first openly LGBTQ member of Congress from the southern states.Former U.S. House Rep. Mondaire Jones is running for New York’s 17th Congressional district seat. The polls show him even with Republican incumbent Michael Lawler.
10:00 – 11:00 p.m.
Presidential race: The swing state of Nevada, with six EVs, has been leaning toward Harris, though some polls have called it a toss up at this late point. National Public Radio reported this month that the Trump campaign has spent $17 million on campaign ads portraying Harris as in favor of transgender surgery for prison inmates and migrants. The ads are appearing in all seven swing states, including Nevada.
11:00-12:00 a.m.
Presidential race: If there is ‑as there was in 2020‑ a “red wave” of votes for Trump for most of the evening but he has reached only 263 Electoral votes, the “blue tsunami” will hit at 11 p.m. with the report of votes from California, Oregon, and Washington. All three will go for Harris, giving her their 74 EVs, for a total of 270.
U.S. House: California and Washington State each have at least one openly LGBTQ candidate for the U.S. House that is well positioned to win. In California, that is Will Rollins, making his second bid for the Congressional District 41 seat. He is up against Republican incumbent Ken Calvert, and the latest polls showed them tied. In Washington State, State Senator Emily Randall was the top vote getter in the all parties primary, including 23,000 more votes than the other top Democrat and 10,000 more than the second top vote getter, a Republican. The seat is seen as a solidly Democratic one.